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KLAX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
31%
HRES
29%
ICON
14%
EPS
14%
WN2
7%
Consensus
13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 19.2¢Risks 19.20u
VS
WN2NO 80.8¢Risks 80.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.80u · WN2 −80.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:54+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:54+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:54+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:4910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:54+00:0031.3%13.2%11.8%28.8%14.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0031.3%13.2%11.8%28.8%14.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0031.3%13.2%11.8%28.8%14.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0031.3%13.2%11.8%28.8%14.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:0031.3%13.2%11.8%28.8%14.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:0031.3%13.6%7.1%28.8%14.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:0031.3%13.6%7.1%28.8%14.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single31%80.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES29%79.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON14%72.7°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble14%75.8°F7.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend14%75.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%76.0°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗