KLGA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 15:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

75%

56%

49%

43%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

AIFSNO 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +37.90u · AIFS −37.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:23+00:00	34.6%	43.7%	17.1%	80.2%	91.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	34.6%	43.7%	17.1%	80.2%	91.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00	34.6%	43.7%	17.1%	80.2%	91.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	34.6%	43.7%	17.1%	80.2%	91.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	34.6%	43.7%	17.1%	80.2%	91.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	36.6%	43.7%	17.1%	80.2%	23.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	36.6%	43.7%	17.1%	80.2%	23.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:42+00:00	36.6%	43.7%	17.1%	80.2%	23.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	36.6%	43.7%	17.1%	80.2%	23.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:00+00:00	36.6%	43.7%	17.1%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	36.6%	52.7%	28.1%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	36.6%	52.7%	28.1%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	36.6%	52.7%	28.1%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	34.8%	52.7%	28.1%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	34.7%	52.7%	28.1%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00	34.7%	52.7%	28.1%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	34.7%	52.7%	28.1%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	34.7%	52.7%	28.1%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	34.7%	52.7%	27.0%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	34.7%	52.7%	27.0%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	34.7%	52.7%	27.0%	82.3%	23.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	33.0%	52.7%	27.0%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	33.0%	52.7%	27.0%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	33.0%	52.7%	27.0%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	33.0%	52.7%	27.0%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	33.0%	52.7%	27.0%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	33.0%	52.7%	32.6%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	33.0%	52.7%	32.6%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	33.0%	52.7%	32.6%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	40.3%	52.7%	32.6%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	40.3%	52.7%	32.6%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	40.3%	52.7%	32.6%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	40.3%	52.7%	32.6%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:48+00:00	40.3%	52.7%	32.6%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	40.3%	52.7%	39.8%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	40.3%	52.7%	39.8%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	40.3%	52.7%	39.8%	67.0%	31.6%
2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:00	39.1%	52.7%	39.8%	81.2%	76.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	39.1%	52.7%	39.8%	81.2%	76.1%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	39.1%	52.7%	39.8%	81.2%	76.1%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	39.1%	52.7%	39.8%	81.2%	76.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	39.1%	52.7%	39.8%	81.2%	76.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00	39.1%	52.7%	50.0%	81.2%	76.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	39.1%	53.3%	50.0%	81.2%	76.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	39.1%	53.3%	50.0%	81.2%	76.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	43.0%	53.3%	50.0%	81.2%	76.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	43.0%	53.2%	48.6%	81.2%	75.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	43.0%	55.5%	48.6%	81.2%	75.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	81%	77.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0353
ICON	75%	76.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0615
National Blend	68%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.1901
IFS Ensemble	56%	75.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1980
WeatherNext 2	49%	74.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.2642
AIFS Single	43%	73.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.3249

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261016-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗