KLGA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 15:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

75%

56%

49%

43%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

AIFSNO 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +37.90u · AIFS −37.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	62.4%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	85.6%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	0.5%	9.0%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	3.0%	13.0%	1.4%	—	2.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	7.9%	1.7%	0.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	50.0%	2.3%	0.0%	—	2.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	1.5%	0.5%	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.0%	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	33.8%	27.9%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.0%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.2%	14.6%	39.6%	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	9.6%	12.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	1.0%	28.2%	48.2%	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	10.4%	40.6%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	87.4%	51.9%	38.5%	—	33.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	42.0%	75.9%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	88.7%	44.9%	68.8%	—	46.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	73.0%	25.3%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	26.4%	9.4%	30.1%	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	54.5%	12.3%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	34.1%	44.2%	48.8%	40.8%	45.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	78.4%	80.9%	64.1%	—	46.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	87.6%	59.9%	45.0%	80.9%	51.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	69.8%	70.9%	56.4%	—	65.1%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	54.0%	36.8%	52.7%	85.1%	65.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	68.8%	45.8%	43.1%	—	59.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	62.8%	52.9%	47.1%	94.5%	66.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	68.9%	81.9%	38.1%	—	67.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	56.3%	77.4%	17.1%	84.8%	48.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	24.1%	58.2%	16.0%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	81%	77.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0353
ICON	75%	76.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0615
National Blend	68%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.1901
IFS Ensemble	56%	75.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1980
WeatherNext 2	49%	74.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.2642
AIFS Single	43%	73.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.3249

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261016-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗