KLGA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

73%

39%

26%

11%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

WN2NO 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.40u · WN2 −51.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	56.3%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	81.5%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.3%	6.6%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.0%	9.6%	0.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	5.5%	1.0%	0.6%	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	42.4%	1.5%	0.0%	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.0%	0.9%	0.3%	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.0%	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	26.5%	21.3%	0.0%	—	19.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.1%	10.1%	31.4%	—	5.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	6.3%	8.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.5%	20.9%	39.1%	—	11.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	6.7%	31.8%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	81.7%	42.3%	29.6%	—	25.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	32.6%	67.4%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	83.0%	34.9%	59.2%	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	63.5%	17.6%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	18.3%	5.6%	21.3%	—	40.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	43.3%	7.5%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	24.2%	33.1%	37.4%	30.0%	34.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	68.5%	71.7%	52.4%	—	34.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	80.1%	47.5%	33.1%	71.3%	38.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	57.7%	59.0%	43.6%	—	52.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	40.7%	25.1%	39.4%	76.0%	52.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	55.6%	32.5%	30.0%	—	45.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	48.5%	38.6%	33.1%	89.2%	52.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	54.5%	70.2%	24.8%	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	40.6%	63.9%	8.9%	73.7%	33.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	13.2%	41.8%	7.9%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	87%	79.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.7500
IFS HRES	73%	78.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.5388
IFS Ensemble	39%	73.2°F	8.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1513
National Blend	29%	72.0°F	6.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0824
AIFS Single	26%	72.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0702
NWS forecast	26%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.0681
WeatherNext 2	11%	71.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0112

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261016-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗