KLGA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

73%

39%

26%

11%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

WN2NO 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.40u · WN2 −51.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T07:50:38+00:00	53.6%	8.5%	29.2%	49.4%	11.8%
2026-10-09T08:37:11+00:00	53.6%	8.5%	29.2%	49.4%	11.8%
2026-10-09T09:22:16+00:00	53.6%	8.5%	29.2%	49.4%	11.8%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	53.6%	8.5%	29.2%	49.4%	11.8%
2026-10-09T10:52:28+00:00	53.6%	8.5%	29.2%	49.4%	11.8%
2026-10-09T11:37:35+00:00	53.6%	8.5%	29.2%	49.4%	11.8%
2026-10-09T12:23:03+00:00	53.6%	9.3%	29.2%	49.4%	11.8%
2026-10-09T13:08:24+00:00	53.6%	9.3%	29.2%	49.4%	11.8%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	32.7%	9.3%	29.2%	49.4%	11.8%
2026-10-09T14:42:06+00:00	32.7%	9.3%	29.2%	49.4%	11.9%
2026-10-09T15:27:12+00:00	32.7%	9.7%	29.2%	49.4%	11.9%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	32.7%	9.7%	29.2%	49.4%	11.9%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	32.7%	9.7%	29.2%	49.4%	11.9%
2026-10-09T17:43:31+00:00	32.7%	9.7%	35.7%	49.4%	11.9%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	32.7%	9.7%	35.7%	49.4%	11.9%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	32.7%	9.7%	35.7%	49.4%	11.9%
2026-10-09T19:58:48+00:00	16.6%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	16.6%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-09T21:29:06+00:00	16.6%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-09T22:14:35+00:00	16.6%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	16.6%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-09T23:44:47+00:00	16.6%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T00:29:54+00:00	16.6%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T01:15:12+00:00	16.6%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T02:00:32+00:00	2.0%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T02:45:56+00:00	2.0%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T03:31:20+00:00	2.0%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T04:16:30+00:00	2.0%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T05:03:02+00:00	2.0%	9.7%	35.7%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T05:48:12+00:00	2.0%	9.7%	5.2%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T06:33:19+00:00	2.0%	9.7%	5.2%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T07:18:24+00:00	2.0%	9.7%	5.2%	0.4%	22.9%
2026-10-10T08:03:29+00:00	25.3%	9.7%	5.2%	0.4%	22.6%
2026-10-10T08:48:38+00:00	25.3%	9.7%	5.2%	0.4%	22.6%
2026-10-10T09:33:43+00:00	25.3%	9.7%	5.2%	0.4%	22.6%
2026-10-10T10:18:51+00:00	25.3%	9.7%	5.2%	0.4%	22.6%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	25.3%	9.7%	5.2%	0.4%	22.6%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	25.3%	14.6%	5.2%	0.4%	22.6%
2026-10-10T12:34:18+00:00	25.3%	14.6%	5.2%	0.4%	22.6%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	25.3%	14.6%	5.2%	0.4%	22.6%
2026-10-10T14:04:38+00:00	27.9%	14.8%	5.2%	0.4%	22.7%
2026-10-10T14:53:44+00:00	27.9%	14.8%	5.2%	0.4%	22.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:22+00:00	27.9%	14.9%	5.2%	0.4%	22.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00	27.9%	14.9%	5.2%	0.4%	22.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:42+00:00	27.9%	14.9%	10.4%	0.4%	22.7%
2026-10-10T17:54:51+00:00	27.9%	14.9%	10.4%	0.4%	22.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00	27.9%	14.9%	10.4%	0.4%	22.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:26+00:00	27.9%	14.9%	10.4%	0.4%	22.7%
2026-10-10T20:10:39+00:00	32.5%	14.9%	10.4%	0.4%	64.1%
2026-10-10T20:55:53+00:00	32.5%	14.9%	10.4%	0.4%	64.1%
2026-10-10T21:41:25+00:00	32.5%	14.9%	10.4%	0.4%	64.1%
2026-10-10T22:26:35+00:00	32.5%	14.9%	10.4%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-10T23:13:26+00:00	32.5%	14.9%	14.5%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00	32.5%	14.9%	14.5%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	32.5%	14.9%	14.5%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T01:28:57+00:00	20.2%	14.9%	14.5%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T02:14:08+00:00	20.2%	14.9%	14.5%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T02:59:16+00:00	20.2%	14.9%	14.5%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T03:44:24+00:00	20.2%	14.9%	14.5%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T04:30:37+00:00	20.2%	14.9%	14.5%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T05:15:58+00:00	20.2%	14.9%	4.9%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T06:01:13+00:00	20.2%	14.9%	4.9%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T06:46:20+00:00	20.2%	14.9%	4.9%	0.7%	64.1%
2026-10-11T07:31:30+00:00	26.3%	14.9%	4.9%	1.9%	64.1%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	26.3%	14.9%	4.9%	1.9%	64.1%
2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:00	26.3%	14.9%	4.9%	1.9%	64.1%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	26.3%	14.9%	4.9%	1.9%	64.1%
2026-10-11T10:33:25+00:00	26.3%	14.9%	4.9%	1.9%	64.1%
2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00	26.3%	26.5%	16.7%	1.9%	64.1%
2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00	26.3%	26.5%	16.7%	1.9%	64.1%
2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00	26.3%	26.5%	16.7%	1.9%	64.1%
2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00	18.4%	26.5%	16.7%	1.9%	64.1%
2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00	18.5%	26.7%	16.8%	1.9%	64.0%
2026-10-11T15:11:19+00:00	18.5%	26.3%	16.8%	1.9%	64.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	18.5%	26.3%	16.8%	1.9%	64.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00	18.5%	26.3%	16.8%	1.9%	64.0%
2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00	18.5%	26.3%	16.2%	1.9%	64.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00	18.5%	26.3%	16.2%	1.9%	64.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	18.5%	26.3%	16.2%	1.9%	64.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00	10.7%	26.3%	16.2%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	10.7%	26.3%	16.2%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00	10.7%	26.3%	16.2%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-11T21:58:56+00:00	10.7%	26.3%	16.2%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00	10.7%	26.3%	16.2%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00	10.7%	26.2%	15.6%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00	10.7%	26.2%	15.6%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00	10.7%	26.2%	15.6%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	6.0%	26.2%	15.6%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00	6.0%	26.2%	15.6%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00	6.0%	26.2%	15.6%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T04:00:48+00:00	6.0%	26.2%	15.6%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T04:47:12+00:00	6.0%	26.2%	15.6%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T05:32:18+00:00	6.0%	26.2%	31.1%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T06:17:26+00:00	6.0%	26.2%	31.1%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T07:02:31+00:00	6.0%	26.2%	31.1%	44.5%	47.3%
2026-10-12T07:47:38+00:00	7.3%	26.2%	31.1%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00	7.3%	26.2%	31.1%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	7.3%	26.2%	31.1%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00	7.3%	26.2%	31.1%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00	7.3%	26.2%	31.1%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:16+00:00	7.3%	26.2%	12.4%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	7.3%	24.5%	12.4%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	7.3%	24.5%	12.4%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00	26.4%	24.5%	12.4%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	26.4%	24.8%	12.4%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T15:26:26+00:00	26.4%	24.8%	12.4%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00	26.4%	24.0%	12.4%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	26.4%	23.7%	12.4%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	26.4%	23.7%	41.5%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	26.4%	23.7%	41.5%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	26.4%	23.7%	41.5%	10.4%	0.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	20.4%	23.7%	41.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	20.4%	23.7%	41.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	20.4%	23.7%	41.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	20.4%	23.7%	41.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	20.4%	23.7%	23.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	20.4%	23.7%	23.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	20.4%	23.7%	23.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	20.4%	23.7%	23.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	17.0%	23.7%	23.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	17.0%	23.7%	23.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	17.0%	23.7%	23.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:09+00:00	17.0%	23.7%	23.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:41+00:00	17.0%	23.7%	23.5%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	17.0%	23.7%	17.4%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T06:31:58+00:00	17.0%	23.7%	17.4%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	17.0%	23.7%	17.4%	77.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T08:02:25+00:00	15.4%	23.7%	17.4%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	15.4%	23.7%	17.4%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	15.4%	23.7%	17.4%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	15.4%	23.7%	17.4%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	15.4%	23.7%	17.4%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	15.4%	39.0%	18.7%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	15.4%	39.0%	18.7%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	15.4%	39.0%	18.7%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	21.5%	39.0%	18.7%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	21.5%	39.0%	18.7%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	21.5%	38.9%	18.7%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	21.5%	38.9%	18.7%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	21.5%	38.9%	14.3%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	21.5%	38.9%	14.3%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	21.5%	38.9%	14.3%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	21.5%	38.9%	14.3%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	18.2%	38.9%	14.3%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	18.2%	38.9%	14.3%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T21:42:47+00:00	18.2%	38.9%	14.3%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	18.2%	38.9%	14.3%	88.2%	86.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	18.2%	38.9%	10.6%	73.4%	86.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	18.2%	38.9%	10.6%	73.4%	86.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	18.2%	38.9%	10.6%	73.4%	86.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	26.5%	38.9%	10.6%	73.4%	86.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	26.5%	38.9%	10.6%	73.4%	86.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00	26.5%	38.9%	10.6%	73.4%	86.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	87%	79.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.7500
IFS HRES	73%	78.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.5388
IFS Ensemble	39%	73.2°F	8.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1513
National Blend	29%	72.0°F	6.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0824
AIFS Single	26%	72.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0702
NWS forecast	26%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.0681
WeatherNext 2	11%	71.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0112

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261016-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗