KLGA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 13:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

43%

17%

12%

10%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 40.0¢Risks 40.05u

AIFSNO 60.0¢Risks 59.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.95u · AIFS −59.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	76.9%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	0.2%	4.7%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.3%	6.9%	0.5%	—	1.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	3.8%	0.6%	0.3%	—	0.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	35.1%	0.9%	0.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	—	2.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.0%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	20.1%	15.7%	0.0%	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	6.8%	24.1%	—	3.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	3.9%	5.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	14.9%	30.6%	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	4.2%	23.8%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	74.5%	33.0%	21.8%	—	18.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	24.1%	58.0%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	75.7%	25.9%	49.0%	—	27.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	53.2%	11.6%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	11.9%	3.1%	14.3%	—	30.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	32.6%	4.2%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	16.0%	23.3%	27.0%	20.7%	24.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	57.2%	60.7%	40.5%	—	24.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	70.2%	35.4%	22.7%	59.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	44.9%	46.1%	31.4%	—	39.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	28.4%	15.7%	27.3%	64.4%	39.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	41.7%	21.1%	19.1%	—	32.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	34.5%	25.6%	21.2%	80.9%	38.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	39.5%	56.0%	14.4%	—	38.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	26.3%	48.4%	4.1%	59.4%	20.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	26.7%	3.4%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	78.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.4970
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3481
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1945
IFS Ensemble	43%	76.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1884
ICON	17%	73.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0296
WeatherNext 2	12%	73.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0139
AIFS Single	10%	72.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0092

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261016-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗