KLGA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 13:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

43%

17%

12%

10%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 40.0¢Risks 40.05u

AIFSNO 60.0¢Risks 59.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.95u · AIFS −59.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00	24.8%	33.9%	23.5%	63.7%	54.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	24.8%	33.9%	28.0%	63.7%	54.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	24.8%	33.9%	28.0%	63.7%	54.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	24.8%	33.9%	28.0%	63.7%	54.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	24.8%	33.9%	28.0%	63.7%	54.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	16.9%	33.9%	28.0%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	16.9%	33.9%	28.0%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	16.9%	33.9%	28.0%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	16.9%	33.9%	28.0%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	16.9%	33.9%	14.3%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	16.9%	33.9%	14.3%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	16.9%	33.9%	14.3%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	13.3%	33.9%	14.3%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	13.3%	33.9%	14.3%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	13.3%	33.9%	14.3%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	13.3%	33.9%	14.3%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	13.3%	33.9%	14.3%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	13.3%	33.9%	11.5%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	13.3%	33.9%	11.5%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	13.3%	33.9%	11.5%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	13.3%	33.9%	11.5%	70.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	9.6%	33.9%	11.5%	70.5%	17.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	9.6%	33.9%	11.5%	70.5%	17.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	9.6%	33.9%	11.5%	70.5%	17.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	9.6%	33.9%	11.5%	70.5%	17.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	9.6%	43.4%	11.8%	70.5%	17.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:34+00:00	9.6%	43.4%	11.8%	70.5%	17.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	9.6%	43.4%	11.8%	70.5%	17.2%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	9.6%	43.4%	11.8%	70.5%	17.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	78.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.4970
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3481
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1945
IFS Ensemble	43%	76.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1884
ICON	17%	73.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0296
WeatherNext 2	12%	73.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0139
AIFS Single	10%	72.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0092

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261016-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗