KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

97%

87%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 93.5¢Risks 46.73u

HRESNO 6.6¢Risks 3.28u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +3.28u · HRES −3.28u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:26+00:00	86.4%	96.5%	84.8%	69.8%	91.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00	86.4%	95.7%	84.8%	69.8%	91.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	86.4%	95.7%	84.8%	69.8%	91.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	86.4%	95.7%	88.5%	69.8%	91.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	86.4%	95.7%	88.5%	69.8%	91.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	86.4%	95.7%	88.5%	69.8%	91.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	89.3%	95.7%	88.5%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	89.3%	95.7%	88.5%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	89.3%	95.7%	88.5%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	89.3%	95.7%	88.5%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	89.3%	95.7%	89.0%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	89.3%	95.7%	89.0%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	89.3%	95.7%	89.0%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	89.3%	95.7%	89.0%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	87.7%	95.7%	89.0%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	87.7%	95.7%	89.0%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	87.7%	95.7%	89.0%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:09+00:00	87.7%	95.7%	89.0%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:41+00:00	87.7%	95.7%	89.0%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	87.7%	95.7%	90.7%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T06:31:58+00:00	87.7%	95.7%	90.7%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	87.7%	95.7%	90.7%	75.6%	93.5%
2026-10-13T08:02:25+00:00	95.5%	95.7%	90.7%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	95.5%	95.7%	90.7%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	95.5%	95.7%	90.7%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	95.5%	95.7%	90.7%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	95.5%	95.7%	90.7%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	95.5%	97.1%	98.9%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	95.5%	97.1%	98.9%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	95.5%	97.1%	98.9%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	97.5%	97.0%	98.9%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	97.5%	97.0%	98.9%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	97.5%	97.2%	98.9%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	97.5%	97.2%	98.9%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	97.5%	97.2%	99.5%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	97.5%	97.2%	99.5%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	97.5%	97.2%	99.5%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	97.5%	97.2%	99.5%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	95.1%	97.2%	99.5%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	95.1%	97.2%	99.5%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T21:42:47+00:00	95.1%	97.2%	99.5%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	95.1%	97.2%	99.5%	82.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	95.1%	97.2%	99.0%	86.9%	100.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	95.1%	97.2%	99.0%	86.9%	100.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	95.1%	97.2%	99.0%	86.9%	100.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	99.4%	97.2%	99.0%	86.9%	100.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	99.4%	97.2%	99.0%	86.9%	100.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00	99.4%	97.2%	99.0%	86.9%	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	73.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	>99%	66.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	99%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	97%	69.6°F	7.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0008
IFS HRES	87%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0172
NWS forecast	55%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	43%	54.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.3226

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗