KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

97%

87%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 93.5¢Risks 46.73u

HRESNO 6.6¢Risks 3.28u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +3.28u · HRES −3.28u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	86.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	86.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	99.1%	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	99.9%	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	94.6%	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	96.4%	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	98.0%	98.2%	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	99.4%	97.0%	53.5%	—	86.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	—	99.4%	83.9%	—	86.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	85.8%	89.0%	53.0%	—	84.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	86.9%	85.5%	98.3%	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	87.4%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	90.6%	91.6%	88.0%	—	75.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	95.7%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	99.9%	87.4%	79.8%	—	74.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.9%	92.2%	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	100.0%	100.0%	87.6%	—	88.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.1%	—	99.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	100.0%	99.8%	99.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	99.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	99.0%	96.8%	96.6%	—	93.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	30.3%	54.7%	20.3%	7.1%	14.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	37.0%	48.4%	20.3%	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	73.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	>99%	66.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	99%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	97%	69.6°F	7.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0008
IFS HRES	87%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0172
NWS forecast	55%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	43%	54.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.3226

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗