KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

76%

70%

57%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.3¢Risks 75.35u

HRESNO 24.7¢Risks 24.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.65u · HRES −24.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	98.0%	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	99.8%	—	—	90.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	90.2%	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	92.9%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	95.7%	96.0%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	98.6%	93.7%	39.6%	—	77.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	98.3%	73.4%	—	77.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	75.5%	80.0%	38.0%	—	73.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	76.4%	74.5%	95.7%	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	76.9%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	81.6%	83.2%	77.5%	—	60.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	90.1%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	99.7%	75.9%	65.4%	—	58.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	83.4%	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	100.0%	99.9%	75.6%	—	76.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	100.0%	99.9%	99.4%	—	98.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	100.0%	100.0%	96.7%	—	99.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	92.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	99.9%	99.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	100.0%	99.6%	99.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	100.0%	99.0%	99.5%	—	99.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	100.0%	99.9%	99.2%	—	98.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	98.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	—	98.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	100.0%	99.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	100.0%	100.0%	97.9%	—	99.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.0%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	94.0%	86.4%	85.6%	—	76.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	9.6%	25.0%	5.2%	1.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.3%	19.2%	4.9%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	67.7°F	7.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0038
ICON	85%	62.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0213
AIFS Single	76%	59.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0595
WeatherNext 2	70%	58.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0870
IFS HRES	57%	57.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1858
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2125
National Blend	33%	54.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.4543

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗