KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

85%

76%

70%

57%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.3¢Risks 75.35u

HRESNO 24.7¢Risks 24.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.65u · HRES −24.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:00:49+00:00	44.0%	86.6%	67.8%	43.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:12+00:00	44.0%	86.6%	67.8%	43.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:18+00:00	44.0%	86.6%	70.1%	43.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:26+00:00	44.0%	86.6%	70.1%	43.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:31+00:00	44.0%	86.6%	70.1%	43.3%	84.4%
2026-10-12T07:47:38+00:00	51.6%	86.6%	70.1%	56.9%	85.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00	51.6%	86.6%	70.1%	56.9%	85.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	51.6%	86.6%	70.1%	56.9%	85.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00	51.6%	86.6%	70.1%	56.9%	85.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00	51.6%	86.6%	70.1%	56.9%	85.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:16+00:00	51.6%	86.6%	70.6%	56.9%	85.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	51.6%	94.0%	70.6%	56.9%	85.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	51.6%	94.0%	70.6%	56.9%	85.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:00+00:00	75.6%	94.0%	70.6%	56.9%	85.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	75.6%	93.8%	70.5%	56.9%	85.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	67.7°F	7.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0038
ICON	85%	62.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0213
AIFS Single	76%	59.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0595
WeatherNext 2	70%	58.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0870
IFS HRES	57%	57.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1858
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2125
National Blend	33%	54.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.4543

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗