KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

70%

55%

40%

30%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.6¢Risks 59.60u

AIFSNO 40.4¢Risks 40.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.40u · AIFS −40.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	90.7%	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	98.3%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	69.3%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	74.3%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	80.6%	81.5%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	90.4%	74.3%	12.6%	—	45.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	88.7%	38.5%	—	43.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	39.4%	45.4%	10.3%	—	36.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	39.0%	36.7%	76.4%	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	38.7%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	44.2%	46.7%	38.5%	—	21.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	58.5%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	94.6%	34.6%	24.1%	—	19.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	43.7%	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	99.1%	96.6%	32.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	99.3%	99.5%	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	99.0%	97.3%	90.6%	—	85.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	99.7%	98.2%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	99.1%	98.8%	70.6%	—	89.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	99.8%	99.0%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	99.9%	99.6%	86.9%	94.7%	91.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	99.8%	89.3%	95.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	99.8%	80.1%	86.6%	—	81.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	100.0%	95.2%	80.9%	—	75.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	99.9%	99.3%	71.3%	97.5%	70.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	100.0%	99.8%	83.4%	—	69.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	99.9%	99.8%	78.0%	98.4%	76.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	99.9%	99.9%	61.0%	—	74.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	99.8%	99.9%	69.5%	97.9%	86.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	36.6%	21.3%	20.2%	—	12.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	73.4°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0128
IFS Ensemble	70%	66.1°F	8.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0894
WeatherNext 2	55%	62.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1998
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2172
National Blend	42%	60.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.3329
IFS HRES	40%	59.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.3624
AIFS Single	30%	58.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.4830

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗