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KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
89%
EPS
70%
WN2
55%
HRES
40%
AIFS
30%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 59.6¢Risks 59.60u
VS
AIFSNO 40.4¢Risks 40.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.40u · AIFS −40.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 40.1% · 2026-10-10T22:26:35+00:00AIFS Single: 40.1% · 2026-10-10T23:13:26+00:00AIFS Single: 40.1% · 2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00AIFS Single: 40.1% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T01:28:57+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:08+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:16+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T03:44:24+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T04:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T05:15:58+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T06:01:13+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T06:46:20+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-11T07:31:30+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-11T10:33:25+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00AIFS Single: 30.5% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-10T22:26:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T01:28:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T03:44:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T04:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T05:15:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T06:01:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T06:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T07:31:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.2% · 2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.2% · 2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.2% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.2% · 2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-10T22:26:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T01:28:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T03:44:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T04:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T05:15:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T06:01:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T06:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T07:31:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T10:33:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.3% · 2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.3% · 2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.3% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.3% · 2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.3% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-10T22:26:35+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:26+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T01:28:57+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:08+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:16+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T03:44:24+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T04:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T05:15:58+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T06:01:13+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T06:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T07:31:30+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T10:33:25+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00IFS HRES: 39.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-10T22:26:35+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:26+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T01:28:57+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:08+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:16+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T03:44:24+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T04:30:37+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T05:15:58+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T06:01:13+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T06:46:20+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T07:31:30+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:25+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:0010-10 22:2610-11 06:4610-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:26:35+00:0040.1%70.3%46.0%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:26+00:0040.1%70.3%49.2%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:0040.1%70.3%49.2%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:0040.1%70.3%49.2%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T01:28:57+00:0035.3%70.3%49.2%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T02:14:08+00:0035.3%70.3%49.2%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T02:59:16+00:0035.3%70.3%49.2%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T03:44:24+00:0035.3%70.3%49.2%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T04:30:37+00:0035.3%70.3%49.2%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T05:15:58+00:0035.3%70.3%23.9%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T06:01:13+00:0035.3%70.3%23.9%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T06:46:20+00:0035.3%70.3%23.9%15.6%88.7%
2026-10-11T07:31:30+00:0046.2%70.3%23.9%39.8%88.7%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:0046.2%70.3%23.9%39.8%88.7%
2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:0046.2%70.3%23.9%39.8%88.7%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:0046.2%70.3%23.9%39.8%88.7%
2026-10-11T10:33:25+00:0046.2%70.3%23.9%39.8%88.7%
2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:0046.2%70.2%55.3%39.8%88.7%
2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:0046.2%70.2%55.3%39.8%88.7%
2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:0046.2%70.2%55.3%39.8%88.7%
2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:0031.1%70.2%55.3%39.8%88.7%
2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:0030.5%70.1%55.3%39.8%88.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON89%73.4°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.0128
IFS Ensemble70%66.1°F8.7°F2026-10-11 00:000.0894
WeatherNext 255%62.1°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.1998
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 02:000.2172
National Blend42%60.0°F7.8°F2026-10-11 06:000.3329
IFS HRES40%59.8°F6.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.3624
AIFS Single30%58.8°F5.3°F2026-10-11 06:000.4830

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗