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KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
93%
WN2
84%
ICON
80%
HRES
79%
EPS
68%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 81.0¢Risks 80.95u
VS
EPSNO 19.0¢Risks 19.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.05u · EPS −19.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00AIFS Single: 93.4% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00ICON: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00ICON: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00ICON: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00ICON: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00ICON: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:0010-11 11:1910-11 19:4310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T11:19:38+00:0028.3%68.5%62.7%86.9%—
2026-10-11T12:05:19+00:0028.3%68.5%62.7%86.9%—
2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:0028.3%68.5%62.7%86.9%—
2026-10-11T13:35:31+00:0050.7%68.5%62.7%86.9%—
2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:0050.7%68.5%62.7%86.9%—
2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:0050.7%68.5%62.7%86.9%—
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:0050.7%68.5%62.7%86.9%—
2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:0050.7%68.5%62.7%86.9%—
2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:0050.7%68.5%58.0%86.9%—
2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:0050.7%68.5%58.0%86.9%—
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:0050.7%68.5%58.0%86.9%—
2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:0088.8%68.5%58.0%79.4%80.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:0088.8%68.5%58.0%79.4%80.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:0088.8%68.5%58.0%79.4%80.1%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:0088.8%68.5%58.0%79.4%80.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:0088.8%68.5%58.0%79.4%80.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:0088.8%68.5%83.9%79.4%80.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:0088.8%68.5%83.9%79.4%80.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:0088.8%68.5%83.9%79.4%80.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:0093.4%68.5%83.9%79.4%80.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:0093.4%68.5%83.9%79.4%80.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:0093.4%68.5%83.9%79.4%80.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single93%63.9°F5.6°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 284%60.4°F5.0°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
ICON80%63.8°F9.9°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
IFS HRES79%60.7°F6.3°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble68%58.0°F5.2°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
National Blend53%56.0°F6.6°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 56°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗