KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

84%

80%

79%

68%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 81.0¢Risks 80.95u

EPSNO 19.0¢Risks 19.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.05u · EPS −19.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	74.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	58.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	91.7%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	67.0%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	20.8%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	74.8%	25.2%	27.5%	—	46.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	86.1%	47.1%	47.8%	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	69.1%	59.1%	50.8%	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	90.7%	72.6%	77.6%	—	49.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	14.4%	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	93.4%	92.3%	64.7%	—	51.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	83.8%	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	82.8%	95.9%	45.6%	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	62.4%	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	58.2%	94.2%	40.9%	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	64.8%	91.2%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	72.9%	94.6%	37.6%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	62.8%	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	79.5%	85.5%	43.9%	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	73.0%	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	78.7%	57.6%	45.6%	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	78.6%	62.2%	2.1%	—	33.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	77.6%	55.8%	47.7%	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	78.4%	83.3%	50.0%	—	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	80.9%	78.3%	53.7%	23.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	82.6%	82.6%	51.3%	—	59.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	85.9%	90.5%	74.9%	42.0%	55.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	79.9%	82.7%	75.8%	—	61.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	88.5%	96.5%	73.2%	58.6%	57.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	86.4%	96.6%	70.2%	—	45.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	85.8%	95.6%	56.3%	51.6%	40.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	92.7%	96.9%	81.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	63.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	60.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	63.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	60.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	58.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	56.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 56°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗