KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

84%

73%

66%

60%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.2¢Risks 77.20u

ICONNO 22.8¢Risks 22.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.80u · ICON −22.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	52.4%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	89.0%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	60.9%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	16.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	68.9%	19.9%	21.9%	—	39.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	81.6%	39.9%	40.6%	—	47.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	62.0%	51.5%	43.2%	—	30.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	86.9%	65.5%	71.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	10.2%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	90.3%	88.8%	56.6%	—	43.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	78.0%	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	76.6%	93.5%	37.1%	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	53.6%	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	49.1%	91.0%	32.2%	—	19.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	55.7%	86.8%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	64.3%	91.4%	28.7%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	53.0%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	71.5%	78.8%	34.0%	—	29.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	63.5%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	69.9%	46.7%	35.1%	—	16.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	69.5%	51.1%	1.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	68.0%	44.2%	36.3%	—	28.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	68.5%	74.7%	38.1%	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	71.3%	68.0%	41.3%	15.1%	37.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	73.1%	73.1%	38.5%	—	46.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	77.0%	83.5%	63.2%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	68.8%	72.4%	63.7%	—	47.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	79.8%	92.7%	60.1%	44.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	76.4%	92.5%	56.0%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	75.0%	90.4%	40.6%	36.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	85.0%	92.7%	69.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	61.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	60.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	58.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	58.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	57.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	56.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗