KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

64%

46%

31%

27%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.3¢Risks 49.30u

EPSNO 50.7¢Risks 50.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.70u · EPS −50.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	40.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	82.0%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	48.0%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	9.3%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	55.6%	11.5%	13.0%	—	26.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	70.3%	26.6%	27.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	46.9%	36.5%	28.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	76.4%	50.0%	56.4%	—	26.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	4.7%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	81.0%	78.7%	40.1%	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	63.4%	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	61.3%	85.9%	22.1%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	35.9%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	31.4%	81.0%	17.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	37.0%	73.9%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	45.1%	81.0%	14.7%	—	10.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	33.5%	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	52.1%	61.2%	17.6%	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	42.6%	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	48.9%	26.4%	17.6%	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	47.8%	29.6%	0.2%	—	10.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	45.4%	23.3%	17.5%	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	45.2%	52.4%	18.3%	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	47.5%	43.8%	19.9%	4.9%	17.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	48.7%	48.7%	17.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	52.7%	61.9%	36.8%	11.3%	19.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	41.7%	45.8%	36.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	54.3%	76.6%	31.8%	19.1%	18.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	48.5%	75.2%	27.2%	—	10.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	45.3%	69.7%	15.2%	12.5%	7.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	58.2%	73.3%	37.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	60.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	60.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	46%	58.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	57.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	56.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	56.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗