KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

60%

40%

34%

28%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.0¢Risks 53.00u

ICONNO 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.00u · ICON −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00	32.4%	18.5%	66.6%	16.9%	66.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	32.4%	18.5%	66.6%	16.9%	66.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	32.4%	18.5%	66.6%	16.9%	66.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	32.4%	18.5%	62.6%	16.9%	66.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	32.4%	18.5%	62.6%	16.9%	66.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	32.4%	18.5%	62.6%	16.9%	66.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	44.0%	18.5%	62.6%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	44.0%	18.5%	62.6%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	44.0%	18.5%	62.6%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	44.0%	18.5%	62.6%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	44.0%	18.5%	62.6%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	44.0%	18.5%	69.5%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	44.0%	18.5%	69.5%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	44.0%	18.5%	69.5%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	46.5%	18.5%	69.5%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	46.5%	18.5%	69.5%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	46.5%	18.5%	69.5%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	46.5%	18.5%	69.5%	12.7%	38.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:36+00:00	60.0%	39.7%	70.9%	34.3%	27.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	60.0%	39.7%	78.5%	34.3%	27.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	60.0%	39.7%	78.5%	34.3%	27.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	60.0%	39.7%	78.5%	34.3%	27.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	60.0%	39.7%	78.5%	34.3%	27.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	61.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	60.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	58.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	58.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	57.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗