KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

60%

40%

34%

28%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.0¢Risks 53.00u

ICONNO 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.00u · ICON −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	34.6%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	77.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	41.6%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	6.8%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	48.6%	8.5%	9.6%	—	21.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	63.6%	21.0%	21.5%	—	26.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	39.4%	29.6%	22.8%	—	13.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	69.8%	42.1%	48.4%	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	3.0%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	74.9%	72.1%	32.2%	—	21.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	55.1%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	52.6%	80.4%	16.1%	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	27.9%	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	23.7%	74.1%	12.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	28.4%	65.7%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	35.7%	73.7%	9.8%	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	24.9%	68.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	41.8%	51.0%	11.8%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	32.6%	41.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	38.2%	18.3%	11.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	36.7%	20.6%	0.1%	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	34.1%	15.3%	11.0%	—	7.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	33.6%	40.5%	11.4%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	35.4%	32.0%	12.4%	2.5%	10.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	36.1%	36.1%	10.3%	—	14.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	39.4%	48.7%	25.1%	6.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	28.8%	32.5%	24.2%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	40.0%	64.2%	20.2%	10.8%	10.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	33.8%	61.9%	16.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	30.3%	54.7%	7.7%	6.1%	3.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	58.2%	22.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	61.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	60.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	58.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	58.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	57.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗