KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

82%

73%

59%

41%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.2¢Risks 68.25u

ICONNO 31.8¢Risks 31.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.75u · ICON −31.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	1.4%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	26.0%	71.2%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	6.3%	55.6%	7.7%	—	39.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	88.7%	55.8%	76.3%	—	42.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	91.9%	81.1%	74.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	86.4%	85.5%	26.1%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	7.0%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	53.3%	81.0%	13.8%	—	21.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	62.6%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	62.1%	76.6%	5.7%	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	74.3%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	50.0%	71.0%	33.9%	—	28.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	65.7%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	81.0%	44.2%	37.6%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	75.1%	3.4%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	71.5%	39.8%	53.1%	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	78.7%	45.8%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	72.7%	51.1%	67.9%	0.0%	39.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	52.2%	61.1%	1.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	45.4%	59.2%	78.5%	36.3%	38.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	79.2%	56.0%	74.7%	—	29.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	61.1%	59.9%	72.4%	0.0%	34.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	55.1%	57.7%	65.1%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	56.7%	68.1%	61.9%	46.0%	38.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	71.2%	66.2%	72.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	69.5%	64.2%	73.2%	70.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	66.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	65.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	62.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	41%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗