KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

82%

73%

59%

41%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.2¢Risks 68.25u

ICONNO 31.8¢Risks 31.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.75u · ICON −31.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:38+00:00	61.3%	51.5%	75.7%	76.1%	52.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00	61.3%	51.5%	75.7%	76.1%	52.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	61.3%	51.5%	75.7%	76.1%	52.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00	61.3%	51.5%	75.7%	76.1%	52.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00	61.3%	51.5%	75.7%	76.1%	52.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:48+00:00	67.8%	49.1%	76.7%	45.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	67.8%	49.1%	87.9%	45.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	67.8%	49.1%	87.9%	45.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	67.8%	49.1%	87.9%	45.2%	69.3%
2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:00	56.0%	49.1%	87.9%	30.2%	74.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	56.0%	49.1%	87.9%	30.2%	74.0%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	56.0%	49.1%	87.9%	30.2%	74.0%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	56.0%	49.1%	87.9%	30.2%	74.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	56.0%	49.1%	87.9%	30.2%	74.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00	56.0%	49.1%	87.6%	30.2%	74.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	56.0%	50.9%	87.6%	30.2%	74.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00	56.0%	50.9%	87.6%	30.2%	74.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	77.0%	50.9%	87.6%	30.2%	74.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	77.1%	50.9%	87.6%	30.2%	73.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	77.1%	53.6%	87.6%	30.2%	73.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:51+00:00	77.1%	53.6%	87.6%	30.2%	73.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	77.1%	53.6%	94.4%	30.2%	73.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	77.1%	53.6%	94.4%	30.2%	73.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	77.1%	53.6%	94.4%	30.2%	73.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	77.1%	53.6%	94.4%	30.2%	73.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	56.9%	53.6%	94.4%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	56.9%	53.6%	94.4%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	56.9%	53.6%	94.4%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	56.9%	53.6%	94.4%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	56.9%	53.6%	87.1%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	56.9%	53.6%	87.1%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	56.9%	53.6%	87.1%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	63.6%	53.6%	87.1%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	63.6%	53.6%	87.1%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	63.6%	53.6%	87.1%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	63.6%	53.6%	87.1%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	63.6%	53.6%	87.1%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	63.6%	53.6%	90.6%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	63.6%	53.6%	90.6%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	63.6%	53.6%	90.6%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	63.6%	53.6%	90.6%	39.7%	63.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	57.4%	53.6%	90.6%	39.7%	86.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	57.4%	53.6%	90.6%	39.7%	86.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	57.4%	53.6%	90.6%	39.7%	86.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	57.4%	53.6%	90.6%	39.7%	86.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	57.4%	28.1%	85.7%	39.7%	86.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	57.4%	28.1%	85.7%	39.7%	86.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	57.4%	28.1%	85.7%	39.7%	86.1%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	57.4%	28.1%	85.7%	39.7%	86.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00	64.6%	28.1%	85.7%	21.0%	86.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	78.5%	64.6%	96.7%	67.8%	70.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	78.5%	64.6%	96.7%	67.8%	70.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	78.5%	64.6%	96.7%	67.8%	70.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	78.5%	64.6%	96.5%	67.8%	70.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	78.5%	64.6%	96.5%	67.8%	70.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	78.5%	64.6%	96.5%	67.8%	70.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	96.5%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	96.5%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	96.5%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	96.5%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	96.5%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	95.3%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	95.3%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	95.3%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	95.3%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	95.3%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	77.0%	64.6%	95.3%	73.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	76.1%	58.7%	95.4%	65.7%	45.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	76.1%	58.7%	95.4%	65.7%	45.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	76.1%	58.7%	91.5%	65.7%	45.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	76.1%	58.7%	91.5%	65.7%	45.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	76.1%	58.7%	91.5%	65.7%	45.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	76.1%	58.7%	91.5%	65.7%	45.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	79.9%	58.7%	91.5%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	79.9%	58.7%	91.5%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	79.9%	58.7%	91.5%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	79.9%	58.7%	91.5%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	79.9%	58.7%	95.4%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	79.9%	58.7%	95.4%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	79.9%	58.7%	95.4%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	82.0%	58.7%	95.4%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	82.0%	58.7%	95.4%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	82.0%	58.7%	95.4%	73.2%	41.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	82.0%	58.7%	95.4%	73.2%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	66.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	65.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	62.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	41%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗