KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

93%

89%

84%

84%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 91.5¢Risks 45.77u

HRESNO 8.5¢Risks 4.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.23u · HRES −4.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	82.0%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	64.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	44.6%	83.7%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	82.9%	88.1%	41.6%	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	89.7%	80.1%	59.4%	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	88.6%	83.1%	32.3%	—	43.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	80.0%	83.2%	44.4%	—	46.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	22.4%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	89.5%	73.5%	70.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	78.0%	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	81.0%	87.8%	87.4%	—	30.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	75.8%	78.5%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	87.6%	89.8%	89.8%	—	65.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	88.2%	86.3%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	79.0%	87.9%	82.3%	—	69.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	70.9%	81.0%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	56.1%	84.3%	78.1%	0.6%	64.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	87.4%	81.0%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	89.6%	84.5%	80.2%	—	62.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	87.1%	89.3%	4.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	90.0%	93.9%	71.0%	0.1%	64.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	94.5%	88.6%	80.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	96.5%	86.3%	86.3%	79.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	96.0%	95.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	69.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	67.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	84%	67.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	67.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗