KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

93%

89%

84%

84%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 91.5¢Risks 45.77u

HRESNO 8.5¢Risks 4.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.23u · HRES −4.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:19:51+00:00	87.4%	64.6%	95.3%	73.3%	87.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	87.4%	64.6%	97.3%	73.3%	87.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	87.4%	64.6%	97.3%	73.3%	87.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	87.4%	64.6%	97.3%	73.3%	87.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	87.4%	64.6%	97.3%	73.3%	87.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	75.9%	64.6%	97.3%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	75.9%	64.6%	97.3%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	75.9%	64.6%	97.3%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	75.9%	64.6%	97.3%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	75.9%	64.6%	94.8%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	76.0%	64.6%	94.8%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	76.0%	64.6%	94.8%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	81.8%	64.6%	94.8%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	81.8%	64.6%	94.8%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	81.8%	64.6%	94.8%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	81.8%	64.6%	94.8%	74.5%	92.7%
2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00	91.2%	49.1%	99.3%	83.1%	91.6%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	91.2%	49.1%	99.1%	83.1%	91.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	91.2%	49.1%	99.1%	83.1%	91.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	91.2%	49.1%	99.1%	83.1%	91.6%
2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00	92.0%	49.1%	99.1%	83.8%	84.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	92.0%	49.1%	99.1%	83.8%	84.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	92.0%	49.1%	99.1%	83.8%	84.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	92.0%	49.1%	99.1%	83.8%	84.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	92.0%	49.1%	99.1%	83.8%	84.3%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	92.0%	89.3%	99.3%	83.8%	84.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	92.0%	89.3%	99.3%	83.8%	84.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	92.0%	89.3%	99.3%	83.8%	84.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	93.3%	89.3%	99.3%	83.8%	84.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	93.3%	88.9%	99.3%	83.8%	84.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	69.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	67.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	84%	67.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	67.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗