KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

68%

58%

53%

43%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

EPSNO 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.80u · EPS −41.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	67.0%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	44.8%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	26.0%	68.2%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	37.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	66.4%	74.3%	23.0%	—	34.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	76.3%	61.6%	37.8%	—	26.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	73.6%	64.9%	15.1%	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	59.5%	64.1%	23.0%	—	24.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	8.5%	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	73.5%	50.0%	46.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	55.1%	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	58.7%	69.3%	68.6%	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	50.9%	54.5%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	67.8%	71.8%	71.8%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	68.2%	64.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	52.9%	67.0%	57.7%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	42.0%	55.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	26.8%	59.2%	50.0%	0.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	63.5%	53.2%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	66.9%	57.6%	51.1%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	61.1%	65.4%	0.5%	—	30.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	65.9%	74.9%	37.4%	0.0%	31.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	75.6%	61.9%	48.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	80.9%	56.2%	56.2%	45.0%	40.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	78.1%	75.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	69.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	69.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	67.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	67.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	65.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗