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KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
74%
AIFS
68%
HRES
58%
ICON
53%
EPS
43%
Consensus
59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.20u
VS
EPSNO 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.80u · EPS −41.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.7% · 2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:0010-13 08:0210-13 09:3410-13 11:05
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:0067.8%42.7%73.7%58.1%52.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:0067.8%42.7%73.7%58.1%52.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:0067.8%42.7%73.7%58.1%52.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:0067.8%42.7%73.7%58.1%52.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:0067.8%42.7%73.7%58.1%52.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 274%69.9°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
AIFS Single68%69.1°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS HRES58%67.8°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend56%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON53%67.2°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble43%65.8°F3.8°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗