KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 10.0¢Risks 4.98u

EPSNO 90.0¢Risks 45.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.02u · EPS −45.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	25.4%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	10.1%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	3.4%	23.8%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	20.9%	28.1%	2.4%	—	5.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	28.5%	16.1%	5.5%	—	2.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	23.9%	16.9%	0.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	12.3%	14.9%	1.6%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.2%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	20.1%	7.1%	6.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	8.5%	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	9.4%	15.1%	14.6%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	6.0%	7.1%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	12.4%	14.9%	14.9%	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	11.8%	10.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	5.1%	10.2%	6.5%	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	2.5%	5.1%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.8%	5.8%	3.5%	0.0%	1.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	6.5%	3.8%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	7.0%	4.2%	2.9%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	5.7%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	5.1%	8.5%	0.9%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.8%	3.5%	1.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	9.5%	2.1%	2.1%	1.0%	0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	6.8%	5.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	18%	70.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	69.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	67.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	66.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗