KLGA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

58%

53%

34%

30%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

EPSNO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.50u · EPS −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	27.3%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	39.6%	—	34.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	57.7%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	32.4%	—	37.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	51.3%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	85.9%	—	45.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	85.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	33.0%	71.2%	—	36.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	73.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	55.6%	38.9%	17.5%	24.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	46.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	37.8%	37.8%	29.7%	31.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	54.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	56.1%	34.4%	67.7%	31.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	15.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	38.2%	30.9%	57.1%	14.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	14.4%	10.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	32.2%	10.1%	40.1%	10.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	30.3%	16.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	14.1%	11.3%	19.6%	8.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	17.8%	26.4%	—	4.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	8.6%	19.0%	9.0%	4.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	14.8%	14.8%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	15.9%	19.7%	17.7%	3.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	9.2%	19.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	14.5%	13.4%	9.8%	2.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	22.0%	10.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	26.4%	10.4%	17.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	7.5%	10.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	58%	66.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	63.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	63.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗