KLGA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

58%

53%

34%

30%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

EPSNO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.50u · EPS −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:01+00:00	79.9%	64.2%	86.7%	70.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	79.9%	54.5%	84.2%	70.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	79.9%	54.5%	84.2%	70.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	79.9%	54.5%	84.2%	70.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	70.9%	54.5%	84.2%	70.4%	57.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	70.9%	54.5%	84.1%	70.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T15:11:57+00:00	70.9%	54.5%	84.1%	70.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	70.9%	54.5%	84.1%	70.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	70.9%	54.5%	84.1%	70.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	70.9%	54.5%	78.8%	70.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	70.9%	54.5%	78.8%	70.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	70.9%	54.5%	78.8%	70.4%	58.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	49.3%	54.5%	78.8%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	49.3%	54.5%	78.8%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	49.3%	54.5%	78.8%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	49.3%	54.5%	78.8%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	49.3%	54.5%	78.8%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	49.3%	54.5%	70.5%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	49.3%	54.5%	70.5%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	49.3%	54.5%	70.5%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	51.4%	54.5%	70.5%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	51.4%	54.5%	70.5%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	51.4%	54.5%	70.5%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	51.4%	54.5%	70.5%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:48+00:00	51.4%	54.5%	70.5%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	51.4%	54.5%	71.9%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	51.4%	54.5%	71.9%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	51.4%	54.5%	71.9%	32.4%	70.7%
2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00	60.2%	54.5%	71.9%	51.8%	60.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	60.2%	54.5%	71.9%	51.8%	60.6%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	60.2%	54.5%	71.9%	51.8%	60.6%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	60.2%	54.5%	71.9%	51.8%	60.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	60.2%	54.5%	71.9%	51.8%	60.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00	60.2%	54.5%	72.6%	51.8%	60.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	60.2%	44.8%	72.6%	51.8%	60.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00	60.2%	44.8%	72.6%	51.8%	60.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	73.0%	44.8%	72.6%	51.8%	60.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	73.0%	44.8%	72.6%	51.8%	60.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	73.0%	46.8%	72.6%	51.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	55.2%	46.8%	75.3%	50.0%	73.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	55.2%	46.8%	74.0%	50.0%	73.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	55.2%	46.8%	74.0%	50.0%	73.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	55.2%	46.8%	74.0%	50.0%	73.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	55.2%	46.8%	74.0%	50.0%	73.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	54.0%	46.8%	74.0%	50.0%	57.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	54.0%	46.8%	74.0%	50.0%	57.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	54.0%	46.8%	74.0%	50.0%	57.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	54.0%	46.8%	74.0%	50.0%	57.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	54.0%	29.8%	71.2%	50.0%	57.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	54.0%	29.8%	71.2%	50.0%	57.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	54.0%	29.8%	71.2%	50.0%	57.9%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	54.0%	29.8%	71.2%	50.0%	57.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00	53.2%	29.8%	71.2%	34.5%	57.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	58%	66.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	63.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	63.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗