KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

81%

67%

62%

51%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

ICONNO 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.05u · ICON −32.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	36.8%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	88.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	85.1%	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	86.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	56.5%	—	39.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	57.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	27.7%	41.3%	—	41.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	36.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	68.9%	29.2%	62.4%	36.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	30.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	94.3%	19.9%	63.6%	26.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	12.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	20.5%	23.9%	49.2%	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	54.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	23.6%	68.4%	75.2%	35.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	18.4%	68.1%	—	31.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	29.3%	76.8%	65.5%	43.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	35.0%	75.4%	—	48.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	58.7%	81.6%	73.8%	51.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	64.9%	87.0%	—	50.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	73.4%	85.6%	60.0%	56.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	86.3%	84.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	87.9%	82.9%	70.4%	66.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	86.0%	74.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	65.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	64.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	62.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	62.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	61.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗