KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

81%

67%

62%

51%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

ICONNO 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.05u · ICON −32.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00	63.2%	87.1%	77.6%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	63.2%	79.2%	77.6%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00	63.2%	79.2%	77.6%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	73.9%	79.2%	77.6%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	73.6%	79.2%	77.3%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	73.6%	80.5%	77.3%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	73.6%	80.5%	77.3%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	73.6%	80.5%	81.7%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	73.6%	80.5%	81.7%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	73.6%	80.5%	81.7%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	73.6%	80.5%	81.7%	51.9%	54.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	59.7%	80.5%	81.7%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	59.7%	80.5%	81.7%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	59.7%	80.5%	81.7%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	59.7%	80.5%	81.7%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	59.7%	80.5%	71.6%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	59.7%	80.5%	71.6%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	59.7%	80.5%	71.6%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	52.8%	80.5%	71.6%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	52.8%	80.5%	71.6%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	52.8%	80.5%	71.6%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	52.8%	80.5%	71.6%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	52.8%	80.5%	71.6%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	52.8%	80.5%	63.8%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	52.8%	80.5%	63.8%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	52.8%	80.5%	63.8%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	52.8%	80.5%	63.8%	36.6%	77.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	71.1%	80.5%	63.8%	36.6%	95.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	71.1%	80.5%	63.8%	36.6%	95.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	71.1%	80.5%	63.8%	36.6%	95.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	71.1%	80.5%	63.8%	36.6%	95.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	71.1%	59.0%	74.0%	36.6%	95.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	71.1%	59.0%	74.0%	36.6%	95.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	71.1%	59.0%	74.0%	36.6%	95.7%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	71.1%	59.0%	74.0%	36.6%	95.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00	41.2%	59.0%	74.0%	37.5%	95.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	41.2%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	95.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	41.2%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	95.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	41.2%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	95.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	41.2%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	95.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	41.2%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	95.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	41.2%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	95.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	27.7%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	46.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	27.7%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	46.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	27.7%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	46.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	27.7%	56.6%	74.0%	37.5%	46.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	27.7%	56.6%	74.0%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	27.7%	56.6%	82.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	27.7%	56.6%	82.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	27.7%	56.6%	82.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	30.9%	56.6%	82.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	30.9%	56.6%	82.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	30.9%	56.6%	82.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	30.9%	56.6%	82.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00	30.9%	56.6%	82.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	30.9%	56.6%	83.8%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	30.9%	56.6%	83.8%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	30.9%	56.6%	83.8%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00	43.6%	56.6%	83.8%	62.9%	44.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	43.6%	56.6%	83.8%	62.9%	44.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	43.6%	56.6%	83.8%	62.9%	44.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	43.6%	56.6%	83.8%	62.9%	44.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	43.6%	56.6%	83.8%	62.9%	44.1%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	43.6%	60.4%	91.0%	62.9%	44.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	43.6%	60.4%	91.0%	62.9%	44.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	43.6%	60.4%	91.0%	62.9%	44.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	80.1%	60.4%	91.0%	62.9%	44.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	80.2%	60.4%	91.0%	62.9%	44.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	80.2%	62.4%	91.0%	62.9%	44.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	80.2%	62.4%	91.0%	62.9%	44.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	80.2%	62.4%	91.0%	62.9%	44.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	80.2%	62.4%	93.4%	62.9%	44.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	80.2%	62.4%	93.4%	62.9%	44.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	80.2%	62.4%	93.4%	62.9%	44.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	53.2%	62.4%	93.4%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	53.2%	62.4%	93.4%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	53.2%	62.4%	93.4%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	53.2%	62.4%	93.4%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	53.2%	62.4%	93.4%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	53.2%	62.4%	85.2%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	53.2%	62.4%	85.2%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	53.2%	62.4%	85.2%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	81.3%	62.4%	85.2%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	81.3%	62.4%	85.2%	67.3%	50.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	81.3%	62.4%	85.2%	67.3%	50.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	65.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	64.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	62.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	62.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	61.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗