KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

70%

56%

50%

46%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.2¢Risks 63.15u

HRESNO 36.8¢Risks 36.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.85u · HRES −36.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	31.7%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	85.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	81.1%	—	52.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	82.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	50.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	51.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	22.3%	34.8%	—	35.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	30.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	62.4%	23.5%	55.6%	29.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	24.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	91.8%	15.2%	56.6%	21.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	8.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	15.5%	18.4%	41.7%	22.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	46.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	17.9%	61.0%	68.4%	28.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	13.5%	60.5%	—	25.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	22.5%	70.0%	57.5%	35.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	27.4%	68.2%	—	39.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	50.0%	75.2%	66.2%	43.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	56.3%	81.6%	—	42.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	65.3%	79.7%	50.9%	47.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	80.4%	77.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	82.3%	76.0%	61.5%	56.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	79.6%	65.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	65.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	65.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	63.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	50%	62.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	61.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗