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KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
81%
WN2
70%
AIFS
56%
ICON
50%
HRES
46%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 63.2¢Risks 63.15u
VS
HRESNO 36.8¢Risks 36.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.85u · HRES −36.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.7% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS HRES: 45.6% · 2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00IFS HRES: 45.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 45.6% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS HRES: 45.6% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 45.6% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:0010-15 07:4810-15 09:2010-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:0056.4%80.7%70.4%45.6%50.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:0056.4%80.7%70.4%45.6%50.4%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:0056.4%80.7%70.4%45.6%50.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:0056.4%80.7%70.4%45.6%50.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:0056.4%80.7%70.4%45.6%50.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble81%65.8°F3.8°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 270%65.4°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
AIFS Single56%63.4°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend55%63.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON50%62.6°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES46%61.8°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗