KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

73%

65%

58%

43%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

EPSNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.00u · EPS −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	18.5%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	72.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	65.9%	—	34.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	67.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	31.2%	—	18.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	32.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	10.2%	18.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	15.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	41.6%	10.5%	34.9%	14.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	11.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	80.1%	5.7%	35.0%	8.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	2.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	5.6%	7.0%	21.6%	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	6.4%	37.5%	45.2%	12.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	4.3%	36.4%	—	9.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	8.3%	45.8%	33.0%	15.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	10.7%	43.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	25.5%	50.9%	40.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	30.2%	58.9%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	38.2%	55.5%	25.1%	22.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	55.7%	51.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	57.7%	49.0%	33.0%	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	53.0%	36.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	68.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	67.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	66.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	64.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗