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KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
89%
AIFS
73%
ICON
65%
HRES
58%
EPS
43%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u
VS
EPSNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.00u · EPS −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00ICON: 53.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00ICON: 53.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00ICON: 53.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 53.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 08:1910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:0057.8%27.0%70.4%54.8%53.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:0057.8%27.0%81.9%54.8%53.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0057.8%27.0%81.9%54.8%53.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0057.8%27.0%81.9%54.8%53.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:0072.9%27.0%81.9%58.0%64.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:0072.9%27.0%81.9%58.0%64.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0072.9%27.0%81.9%58.0%64.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0072.9%27.0%81.9%58.0%64.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0072.9%27.0%81.9%58.0%64.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0072.9%42.6%89.4%58.0%64.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:0072.9%42.6%89.4%58.0%64.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 289%69.7°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single73%68.1°F4.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON65%67.0°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES58%66.4°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%66.0°F3.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble43%64.9°F3.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend41%65.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗