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KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
16%
HRES
7%
ICON
4%
AIFS
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 8.5¢Risks 4.25u
VS
EPSNO 91.5¢Risks 45.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.75u · EPS −45.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-07 06:0010-13 06:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.0%————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.1%———1.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:008.1%————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:004.0%———6.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0021.6%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:006.6%———8.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:007.7%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0011.2%———8.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:009.6%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0011.0%———12.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0016.5%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0025.2%———13.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0011.0%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:003.0%———16.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:001.4%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.9%———14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:003.7%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:004.9%———11.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.4%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:003.4%———11.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0011.7%—3.0%——
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0019.7%———7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0030.6%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0022.7%———5.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0012.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0020.1%———7.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0024.3%—31.6%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0027.0%—24.4%—6.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0011.5%—25.0%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.4%—5.1%—2.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.7%—5.2%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.7%1.8%—1.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:002.5%—1.2%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.8%7.4%0.7%5.2%1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.4%—0.7%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.3%33.0%0.2%4.8%0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.1%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.2%1.7%0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%—2.1%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%4.3%6.4%0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.4%0.1%3.8%—0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%5.8%2.8%0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.2%0.3%4.7%—0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.1%1.4%6.5%3.8%0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.2%1.8%8.8%—0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%2.8%7.0%1.1%0.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.9%6.4%5.3%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:002.3%6.5%4.2%1.6%1.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—4.7%1.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 216%68.5°F4.1°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS HRES7%65.2°F5.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON4%64.2°F4.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend3%64.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%64.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
AIFS Single2%62.9°F4.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%62.7°F3.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗