KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 8.5¢Risks 4.25u

EPSNO 91.5¢Risks 45.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.75u · EPS −45.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00	5.3%	3.9%	9.4%	4.6%	16.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	5.3%	3.9%	9.4%	4.6%	16.0%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	5.3%	3.9%	9.4%	4.6%	16.0%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	5.3%	3.9%	9.4%	4.6%	16.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	5.3%	3.9%	9.4%	4.6%	16.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:02+00:00	5.3%	3.9%	7.5%	4.6%	16.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	5.3%	4.1%	7.5%	4.6%	16.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00	5.3%	4.1%	7.5%	4.6%	16.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	9.4%	4.1%	7.5%	4.6%	16.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	9.7%	4.1%	7.8%	4.8%	15.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	9.7%	4.5%	7.8%	4.8%	15.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	9.7%	4.5%	7.8%	4.8%	15.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	9.7%	4.5%	10.4%	4.8%	15.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	9.7%	4.5%	10.4%	4.8%	15.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	9.7%	4.5%	10.4%	4.8%	15.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	9.7%	4.5%	10.4%	4.8%	15.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	4.6%	4.5%	10.4%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	4.6%	4.5%	10.4%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	4.6%	4.5%	10.4%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	4.6%	4.5%	10.4%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	4.6%	4.5%	5.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	4.6%	4.5%	5.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	4.6%	4.5%	5.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	3.2%	4.5%	5.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	3.2%	4.5%	5.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	3.2%	4.5%	5.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	3.2%	4.5%	5.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	3.2%	4.5%	5.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	3.2%	4.5%	3.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	3.2%	4.5%	3.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	3.2%	4.5%	3.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	3.2%	4.5%	3.5%	2.0%	35.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	6.9%	4.5%	3.5%	2.0%	56.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	6.9%	4.5%	3.5%	2.0%	56.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	6.9%	4.5%	3.5%	2.0%	56.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	6.9%	4.5%	3.5%	2.0%	56.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	8.5%	0.5%	12.1%	5.8%	2.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	8.5%	0.5%	12.1%	5.8%	2.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	8.5%	0.5%	12.1%	5.8%	2.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	16.5%	7.3%	3.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	16.5%	7.3%	3.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	16.5%	7.3%	3.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	16.5%	7.3%	3.7%
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00	1.8%	0.5%	16.5%	7.2%	4.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	1.8%	0.5%	16.5%	7.2%	4.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	1.8%	0.5%	16.5%	7.2%	4.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	1.8%	0.5%	16.5%	7.2%	4.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	1.8%	0.5%	16.5%	7.2%	4.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	16%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	65.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	64.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	62.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	62.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗