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KLGA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
57%
WN2
47%
ICON
43%
EPS
21%
HRES
11%
Consensus
35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.65u
VS
HRESNO 66.3¢Risks 66.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.35u · HRES −66.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-18T04:13:37+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T04:13:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-18T04:13:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T04:13:37+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T04:13:37+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:0010-18 04:1310-18 09:3210-18 14:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:13:37+00:0050.7%51.9%42.2%34.3%34.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:0050.7%51.9%52.3%34.3%34.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:0050.7%51.9%52.3%34.3%34.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:0050.7%51.9%52.3%34.3%34.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:0050.7%51.9%52.3%34.3%34.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:0037.0%51.9%52.3%10.7%42.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:0037.0%51.9%52.3%10.7%42.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:0037.0%51.9%52.3%10.7%42.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:0037.0%51.9%52.3%10.7%42.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:0037.0%51.9%52.3%10.7%42.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:0037.0%20.6%47.4%10.7%42.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:0037.0%20.6%47.4%10.7%42.8%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:0037.0%20.6%47.4%10.7%42.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:0056.6%20.8%47.4%10.7%42.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:0056.6%20.8%47.4%10.7%42.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single57%62.4°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 247%61.2°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON43%60.2°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend37%60.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble21%58.3°F3.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES11%53.3°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗