KLGA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

47%

43%

21%

11%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.65u

HRESNO 66.3¢Risks 66.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.35u · HRES −66.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	18.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	71.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	11.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	57.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	40.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	48.7%	—	28.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	44.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	35.5%	46.0%	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	6.0%	36.9%	6.9%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	11.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	17.9%	18.9%	15.6%	10.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	8.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	36.5%	25.1%	29.6%	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	15.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	24.2%	18.9%	3.8%	11.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	1.7%	25.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	57%	62.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	61.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	60.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	58.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	53.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗