KLGA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

78%

73%

64%

27%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.2¢Risks 55.20u

EPSNO 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.80u · EPS −44.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	3.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	13.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	18.1%	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	18.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	29.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	42.2%	—	24.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	40.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	3.9%	51.3%	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	46.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	72.0%	46.5%	15.8%	36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	42.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	51.5%	40.6%	29.7%	34.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	48.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	67.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	78%	70.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	64.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	60.2°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗