KLGA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

78%

73%

64%

27%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.2¢Risks 55.20u

EPSNO 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.80u · EPS −44.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00	66.2%	44.7%	75.0%	45.7%	28.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	66.2%	44.7%	75.0%	45.7%	28.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	66.2%	44.7%	75.0%	45.7%	28.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	66.2%	44.7%	75.0%	45.7%	28.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	66.2%	44.7%	75.0%	45.7%	28.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	66.2%	30.4%	72.1%	45.7%	28.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	66.2%	30.4%	72.1%	45.7%	28.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	66.2%	30.4%	72.1%	45.7%	28.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	68.1%	30.4%	72.1%	45.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	68.1%	30.4%	72.1%	45.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:23+00:00	68.1%	27.3%	72.1%	45.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	68.1%	27.3%	72.1%	45.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	68.1%	27.3%	80.5%	45.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	68.1%	27.3%	80.5%	45.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	68.1%	27.3%	80.5%	45.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	68.1%	27.3%	80.5%	45.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	80.5%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	80.5%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	80.5%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	80.5%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	83.1%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	83.1%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	83.1%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	83.1%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	83.1%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	83.1%	64.5%	78.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	72.9%	27.3%	83.1%	64.5%	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	67.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	78%	70.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	64.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	60.2°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗