WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KLGA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
79%
AIFS
74%
HRES
60%
EPS
36%
ICON
26%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u
VS
ICONNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.25u · ICON −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00ICON: 26.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:4910-19 11:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:0074.0%25.5%82.9%59.8%26.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0074.0%25.5%82.9%59.8%26.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0074.0%25.5%82.9%59.8%26.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0074.0%25.5%82.9%59.8%26.1%
2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:0074.0%25.5%82.9%59.8%26.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0074.0%35.5%79.4%59.8%26.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 279%70.7°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single74%70.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES60%68.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble36%65.2°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON26%60.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗