KLGA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

74%

60%

36%

26%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

ICONNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.25u · ICON −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	4.5%	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	54.2%	24.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	15.7%	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	35.0%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	7.3%	42.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	47.3%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	3.1%	40.0%	38.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	54.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	70.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	70.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	68.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	65.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	60.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗