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KLGA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
44%
AIFS
41%
HRES
30%
ICON
13%
EPS
4%
Consensus
13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 23.7¢Risks 23.70u
VS
EPSNO 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.30u · EPS −76.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:30+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:30+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:30+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:4910-19 11:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:30+00:0041.1%3.0%51.5%29.9%12.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0041.1%3.0%51.5%29.9%12.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0041.1%3.0%51.5%29.9%12.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0041.1%3.0%51.5%29.9%12.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:47+00:0041.1%3.0%51.5%29.9%12.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0041.1%3.6%43.8%29.9%12.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 244%70.7°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single41%70.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES30%68.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON13%60.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend9%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%65.2°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261026-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗