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KLGA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
44%
AIFS
41%
HRES
30%
ICON
13%
EPS
4%
Consensus
13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 23.7¢Risks 23.70u
VS
EPSNO 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.30u · EPS −76.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 06:0010-15 06:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0027.9%——1.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:005.2%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0016.2%——9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:001.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0010.8%——10.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0012.0%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0068.0%——14.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0029.7%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0021.6%——10.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:005.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:006.8%——10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0018.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:008.3%——8.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.6%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0014.9%——9.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0033.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0011.2%——10.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0016.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0011.0%——7.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0015.0%—0.8%—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0014.9%——8.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0016.3%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:005.5%——9.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0015.8%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:004.0%—25.7%7.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0014.3%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0012.2%—3.6%9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0014.9%—11.8%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0024.1%—1.2%16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0023.2%—18.5%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0020.3%0.3%13.5%12.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——22.9%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 244%70.7°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single41%70.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES30%68.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON13%60.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend9%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%65.2°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261026-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗