KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

63%

50%

39%

11%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.4¢Risks 39.35u

ICONNO 60.7¢Risks 60.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.65u · ICON −60.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	2.3%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	46.5%	21.9%	1.7%	—	50.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	63.6%	37.8%	40.6%	—	53.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	37.2%	43.9%	50.0%	—	53.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	46.0%	24.8%	43.6%	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	17.8%	34.5%	32.2%	—	28.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	17.3%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	23.4%	25.5%	22.8%	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	28.7%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	31.4%	42.7%	19.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	28.4%	34.3%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	28.7%	36.6%	26.3%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	21.9%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	27.6%	39.8%	24.3%	—	27.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	27.9%	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	23.8%	37.1%	25.5%	—	27.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	18.3%	31.5%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	14.0%	36.3%	27.0%	—	28.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	19.9%	35.9%	23.4%	—	27.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	18.2%	40.1%	27.6%	17.4%	26.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	20.0%	39.8%	25.9%	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	15.7%	39.4%	23.0%	14.9%	23.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	32.5%	39.0%	24.2%	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	48.5%	45.7%	34.5%	47.1%	38.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	45.5%	39.5%	24.8%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	40.6%	42.1%	17.1%	54.7%	25.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	69.0%	48.4%	28.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	67.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1050
IFS Ensemble	63%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1399
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
WeatherNext 2	50%	65.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3136
IFS HRES	39%	64.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3672
ICON	11%	61.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.7903

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗