KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

63%

50%

39%

11%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.4¢Risks 39.35u

ICONNO 60.7¢Risks 60.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.65u · ICON −60.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:59+00:00	32.0%	62.5%	44.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	32.0%	62.5%	44.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00	32.0%	62.5%	44.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:49+00:00	52.9%	62.5%	44.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	52.9%	62.5%	44.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:49+00:00	52.9%	64.2%	44.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	52.9%	64.2%	44.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	52.9%	64.2%	44.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:02+00:00	52.9%	64.2%	48.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	52.9%	64.2%	48.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	52.9%	64.2%	48.4%	87.2%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:32+00:00	32.7%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	32.7%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	32.7%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	32.7%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	32.7%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	32.7%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	32.7%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	32.7%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:23+00:00	40.1%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	40.1%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	40.1%	64.2%	48.4%	62.4%	65.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	61.9%	77.5%	48.8%	42.9%	34.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	61.9%	77.5%	48.8%	42.9%	34.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	61.9%	77.5%	51.2%	42.9%	34.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	61.9%	77.5%	51.2%	42.9%	34.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	61.9%	77.5%	51.2%	42.9%	34.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	61.9%	77.5%	51.2%	42.9%	34.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	62.8%	77.5%	51.2%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	62.8%	77.5%	51.2%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	62.8%	77.5%	51.2%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	62.8%	77.5%	51.2%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	62.8%	77.5%	50.0%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	62.8%	77.5%	50.0%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	62.8%	77.5%	50.0%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	64.6%	77.5%	50.0%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	64.6%	77.5%	50.0%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	64.6%	77.5%	50.0%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	64.6%	77.5%	50.0%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:20+00:00	64.6%	77.5%	50.0%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	64.6%	77.5%	53.5%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	64.6%	77.5%	53.5%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	64.6%	77.5%	53.5%	43.8%	34.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	63.5%	77.5%	53.5%	43.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	63.5%	77.5%	53.5%	43.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	63.5%	77.5%	53.5%	43.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	63.5%	77.5%	53.5%	43.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	63.5%	77.5%	53.5%	43.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:20+00:00	63.5%	79.1%	51.3%	43.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	63.5%	79.1%	51.3%	43.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	63.5%	79.1%	51.3%	43.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:41+00:00	63.5%	79.1%	51.3%	40.4%	20.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	63.5%	79.1%	51.3%	40.4%	20.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	51.3%	40.4%	20.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	51.3%	40.4%	20.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	51.3%	40.4%	20.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	40.4%	20.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	40.4%	20.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	40.4%	20.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	40.4%	12.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:35+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	40.4%	12.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	40.4%	12.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	40.4%	12.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	41.3%	12.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	41.3%	12.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	41.3%	12.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	41.3%	12.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	41.3%	12.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	41.3%	12.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	41.3%	12.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	63.5%	76.4%	53.9%	41.3%	12.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	60.0%	62.6%	55.5%	42.5%	11.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	60.0%	62.6%	55.5%	42.5%	11.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	60.0%	62.6%	48.6%	42.5%	11.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	60.0%	62.6%	48.6%	42.5%	11.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	60.0%	62.6%	48.6%	42.5%	11.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	60.0%	62.6%	48.6%	42.5%	11.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	58.0%	62.6%	48.6%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	58.0%	62.6%	48.6%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	58.0%	62.6%	48.6%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	58.0%	62.6%	48.6%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	58.0%	62.6%	50.0%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	58.0%	62.6%	50.0%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	58.0%	62.6%	50.0%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	58.0%	62.6%	50.0%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	67.6%	62.6%	50.0%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	67.6%	62.6%	50.0%	39.4%	11.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	67.6%	62.6%	50.0%	39.4%	11.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	67.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1050
IFS Ensemble	63%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1399
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
WeatherNext 2	50%	65.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3136
IFS HRES	39%	64.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3672
ICON	11%	61.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.7903

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗