KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

62%

57%

26%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

AIFSNO 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.25u · AIFS −45.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	39.6%	17.1%	1.1%	—	43.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	56.6%	31.0%	33.7%	—	46.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	30.3%	36.5%	42.4%	—	45.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	38.2%	18.9%	35.9%	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	12.9%	27.2%	25.1%	—	21.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	12.3%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	17.2%	19.0%	16.7%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	21.5%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	23.7%	33.9%	13.9%	—	16.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	21.0%	26.1%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	21.0%	27.9%	19.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	15.2%	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	19.7%	30.3%	17.0%	—	19.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	19.8%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	16.2%	27.3%	17.6%	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	11.8%	22.3%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	8.5%	26.0%	18.3%	—	19.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	12.6%	25.3%	15.2%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	11.2%	28.7%	18.2%	10.6%	17.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	12.2%	28.0%	16.6%	—	15.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	8.9%	27.3%	14.1%	8.4%	14.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	21.1%	26.5%	14.7%	—	18.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	34.5%	31.8%	22.2%	33.1%	25.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	31.1%	26.0%	14.4%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	26.3%	27.6%	8.9%	39.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	53.3%	32.4%	16.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	84%	72.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6989
IFS Ensemble	62%	69.0°F	7.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.3894
WeatherNext 2	57%	67.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.3215
National Blend	52%	67.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2704
AIFS Single	26%	62.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0671

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗