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KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
84%
EPS
62%
WN2
57%
AIFS
26%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 54.8¢Risks 54.75u
VS
AIFSNO 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.25u · AIFS −45.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-11T07:32:15+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-11T10:33:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.4% · 2026-10-11T10:33:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:58+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:15+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:58+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:33:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:15+00:0025.9%62.4%56.7%83.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:0025.9%62.4%56.7%83.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:0025.9%62.4%56.7%83.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:0025.9%62.4%56.7%83.6%
2026-10-11T10:33:58+00:0025.9%62.4%56.7%83.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES84%72.7°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.6989
IFS Ensemble62%69.0°F7.9°F2026-10-10 00:000.3894
WeatherNext 257%67.4°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.3215
National Blend52%67.0°F9.9°F2026-10-11 00:000.2704
AIFS Single26%62.9°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.0671

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗