KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

47%

35%

30%

29%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.3¢Risks 46.30u

WN2NO 53.7¢Risks 53.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.70u · WN2 −53.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	26.9%	9.6%	0.4%	—	30.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	42.0%	19.4%	21.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	18.4%	23.4%	28.3%	—	30.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	24.2%	10.0%	22.4%	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	6.1%	15.2%	13.8%	—	11.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	5.6%	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	8.3%	9.4%	8.0%	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	10.8%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	11.9%	19.0%	6.1%	—	7.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	10.0%	13.2%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	9.8%	14.2%	8.6%	—	8.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	6.3%	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	8.6%	15.1%	7.1%	—	8.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	8.3%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	6.2%	12.5%	7.0%	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	4.0%	9.2%	0.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	2.5%	11.0%	6.8%	—	7.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	4.0%	10.2%	5.1%	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	3.3%	11.8%	6.3%	3.0%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	3.5%	10.9%	5.3%	—	4.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	2.2%	10.1%	4.0%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	6.7%	9.2%	4.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	13.0%	11.5%	6.8%	12.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	10.5%	8.0%	3.4%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	7.7%	8.3%	1.6%	14.2%	3.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	22.8%	9.9%	3.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	70.9°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.4020
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2970
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2852
IFS Ensemble	47%	68.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2190
AIFS Single	35%	66.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1246
IFS HRES	30%	65.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0912
WeatherNext 2	29%	66.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0853

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗