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KMCI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
63%
EPS
47%
AIFS
35%
HRES
30%
WN2
29%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 46.3¢Risks 46.30u
VS
WN2NO 53.7¢Risks 53.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.70u · WN2 −53.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T04:01:37+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-12T07:48:31+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T04:01:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T07:48:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.6% · 2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-12T04:01:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.3% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.3% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.3% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-12T04:01:37+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T07:48:31+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T04:01:37+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T07:48:31+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:0010-12 04:0110-12 09:1910-12 14:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T04:01:37+00:0021.6%45.6%25.9%43.7%54.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:0021.6%45.6%25.9%43.7%54.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:0021.6%45.6%29.3%43.7%54.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:0021.6%45.6%29.3%43.7%54.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:0021.6%45.6%29.3%43.7%54.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:31+00:0012.1%45.6%29.3%30.2%63.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:0012.1%45.6%29.3%30.2%63.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:0012.1%45.6%29.3%30.2%63.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:0012.1%45.6%29.3%30.2%63.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:0012.1%45.6%29.3%30.2%63.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:0012.1%45.6%29.1%30.2%63.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:0012.1%46.8%29.1%30.2%63.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:0012.1%46.8%29.1%30.2%63.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:0035.3%46.8%29.1%30.2%63.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:0035.3%46.8%29.2%30.2%63.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON63%70.9°F7.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.4020
National Blend55%69.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 06:000.2970
NWS forecast53%69.0°F5.8°F2026-10-12 02:000.2852
IFS Ensemble47%68.1°F5.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.2190
AIFS Single35%66.5°F5.3°F2026-10-12 06:000.1246
IFS HRES30%65.1°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0912
WeatherNext 229%66.0°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0853

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗